Future Market Trends In Nigeria's Telecoms Market
Market Trends in Nigerian’s Telecoms Industry Today
Nigerian Population Growth Rate estimate is 3.2%
Year Population
2003 127777452
2004 131729332
2005 135803435
2006 140003542
2007 149107131
2008 144483655
2009 153878559
2010 158494915
Woo! That sounds like a whooping 158 M subscribers will become mobile users by the year 2010 in Nigeria
Hey! wait a minute and take a critical look at the analysis provided by these guys Ok. : http://www.businessmonitor.com/
Don’t forget this had facts
The income distribution in Nigeria is uneven; with over 70% under national poverty line, 70% of unemployment and a national GNI per capital of $930, realizing such subscriber number will be a tall dream.
So where will the next money spinning stuff come from? Big question! and I think I do have an idea.
The Nigeria Telecommunications Report
Business Monitor International's Nigeria Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecommunications industry in Nigeria.
Nigeria’s mobile market gained more than 11.3mn new customers in the first half of 2008, expanding by 28% to reach 51.73mn mobile users. Nearly 4mn customers were added in the first quarter of 2008, while an impressive 7.3mn were added in Q208. Instead of slowing down, the growth of Nigeria’s mobile market appears to have accelerated in previous quarters; the number of new mobile customers added in Q208 was almost double the number gained in previous quarters. By the end of June 2008, mobile penetration in Nigeria had exceeded 33%. In addition to strong Q208 performances from market leaders Zain and Globacom, a strong stimulus to growth has come from the increasing number of service providers offering CDMA-based services.
As a result of the significant growth recorded in Q208, we have revised our five-year mobile growth forecast for Nigeria. We now envisage a growth rate of 56% for 2008 as a whole, and predict that the number of customers will rise to over 63mn by the end of the year. By the end of the forecast period in 2012, we now predict a total market of 163mn mobile customers (equivalent to nearly 94% penetration).
Meanwhile, we have made some downward revisions to our forecast for Nigeria’s fixed-line market. New data from the regulator show that the number of active fixed-lines grew by 3.6% in the first six months of 2008 to reach 1.602mn. We now predict growth of 11% for 2008 overall. The expansion of the fixed-line sector will continue to be fuelled by investments from fixed wireless operators.
While Nigeria’s alternative operators continue to increase their share of the country’s fixed-line market, new hopes are emerging that the sector will soon see the privatisation of fixed-line incumbent Nitel. In August 2008, it was announced that the government had retained BNP Paribas to act as its adviser for Nitel’s privatisation. Meanwhile, in July, Vodafone of the UK became the latest operator to express an interest in acquiring a stake in Nitel.
Nigeria has slipped two places in our latest set of business environment rankings for Africa. While the country’s own score has fallen as a result of a weaker telecoms market rating, ranking gains made by both Botswana and Egypt have contributed to Nigeria’s lower position overall.Source: http://www.businessmonitor.com/
Meanwhile the Nigeria's telecom sector is the fastest growing in Africa with more than 60 million subscribers, according to a report by the African Development Bank (AfDB).
South Africa is now in second place in terms of telecom market competitiveness and investment. The market attracted a whooping 12 billion dollars in investment for the last seven years.
The average annual growth rate for the number of mobile and fixed line subscribers in Nigeria has been 125 percent since 2000, according to the AfDB 2008/2009 annual report, Africa Economic Outlook (AEO). Nigeria's telecommunication sector has attracted more than US$12 billion in investment in the past seven years. The sector was liberalized in 2003.
The report said Nigeria has the most competitive information and communication technology (ICT) market in Africa with service providers fighting for share of the growing market. Nigeria has the highest teledensity in Africa of 43.2 percent, according to the report.
However, the report said lack of network capacity and poor infrastructure have prevented operators from broadening their networks fast enough to satisfy the increasing number of subscribers.
George Tapfumanei, communications officer for the African Agency for ICT Development said many African countries are now more committed to developing their ICT sectors in a bid to grow their economies and better people's lives.
Latest Report in the industry shows that NITEL privatization may come on-stream around September 2009 and strong contenders towards its acquisition for now seem to be GLOBALCOM.
Nigerian Telecoms market showed impressive records by the end of 2009 with all operators posting increases in subscriber numbers except of course the moribund NITEL and MTEL.
You can access the data; the latest releases by NCC. http://www.ncc.gov.ng/index5_e.htm
About Industry Statistics
Total active lines as at the end of April 2009 stands at 67M with a Tele-density of about 48%
FUTURE MARKET
However, there is no denying the fact that the industry has reached a saturation point in terms of subscriber growth, giving the fact that the poverty ratio hovers around 70%. Clearly those who can afford to own a line almost already have one.
Therefore any operator who negates or ignores innovation stands to loose. Valued added services will be at the heart of the market for the coming years and will be the engine that drives profitability eventually in the industry. I believe that the stage is set right now for a contest between converged VAS and low cost voice focused operation.
Companies can compete by being innovative in the market, and this innovation can be a radical one or an incremental one by enhancing on existing value addition. At the heart of this value addition for the Nigerian market will be internet services, push email services, e-commerce and file transfer services targeted at small and medium scale enterprises and young professional. At the countryside, I believe operators should begin to focus on innovations that will increase internet penetration and in someway encourage e-commerce services which may also include e-banking for the un-banked.
I personally believe that the blackberry services in Nigeria can become more innovative than the present target of just e-mail services. Operators can begin to look at all the other available services than can be customized and tailored to the local needs for the moment.
The Future of telecommunication lies on this value added services beyond the traditional voice services. For me if you ask, “This is the next gold mine”
Nigerian Population Growth Rate estimate is 3.2%
Year Population
2003 127777452
2004 131729332
2005 135803435
2006 140003542
2007 149107131
2008 144483655
2009 153878559
2010 158494915
Woo! That sounds like a whooping 158 M subscribers will become mobile users by the year 2010 in Nigeria
Hey! wait a minute and take a critical look at the analysis provided by these guys Ok. : http://www.businessmonitor.com/
Don’t forget this had facts
The income distribution in Nigeria is uneven; with over 70% under national poverty line, 70% of unemployment and a national GNI per capital of $930, realizing such subscriber number will be a tall dream.
So where will the next money spinning stuff come from? Big question! and I think I do have an idea.
The Nigeria Telecommunications Report
Business Monitor International's Nigeria Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecommunications industry in Nigeria.
Nigeria’s mobile market gained more than 11.3mn new customers in the first half of 2008, expanding by 28% to reach 51.73mn mobile users. Nearly 4mn customers were added in the first quarter of 2008, while an impressive 7.3mn were added in Q208. Instead of slowing down, the growth of Nigeria’s mobile market appears to have accelerated in previous quarters; the number of new mobile customers added in Q208 was almost double the number gained in previous quarters. By the end of June 2008, mobile penetration in Nigeria had exceeded 33%. In addition to strong Q208 performances from market leaders Zain and Globacom, a strong stimulus to growth has come from the increasing number of service providers offering CDMA-based services.
As a result of the significant growth recorded in Q208, we have revised our five-year mobile growth forecast for Nigeria. We now envisage a growth rate of 56% for 2008 as a whole, and predict that the number of customers will rise to over 63mn by the end of the year. By the end of the forecast period in 2012, we now predict a total market of 163mn mobile customers (equivalent to nearly 94% penetration).
Meanwhile, we have made some downward revisions to our forecast for Nigeria’s fixed-line market. New data from the regulator show that the number of active fixed-lines grew by 3.6% in the first six months of 2008 to reach 1.602mn. We now predict growth of 11% for 2008 overall. The expansion of the fixed-line sector will continue to be fuelled by investments from fixed wireless operators.
While Nigeria’s alternative operators continue to increase their share of the country’s fixed-line market, new hopes are emerging that the sector will soon see the privatisation of fixed-line incumbent Nitel. In August 2008, it was announced that the government had retained BNP Paribas to act as its adviser for Nitel’s privatisation. Meanwhile, in July, Vodafone of the UK became the latest operator to express an interest in acquiring a stake in Nitel.
Nigeria has slipped two places in our latest set of business environment rankings for Africa. While the country’s own score has fallen as a result of a weaker telecoms market rating, ranking gains made by both Botswana and Egypt have contributed to Nigeria’s lower position overall.Source: http://www.businessmonitor.com/
Meanwhile the Nigeria's telecom sector is the fastest growing in Africa with more than 60 million subscribers, according to a report by the African Development Bank (AfDB).
South Africa is now in second place in terms of telecom market competitiveness and investment. The market attracted a whooping 12 billion dollars in investment for the last seven years.
The average annual growth rate for the number of mobile and fixed line subscribers in Nigeria has been 125 percent since 2000, according to the AfDB 2008/2009 annual report, Africa Economic Outlook (AEO). Nigeria's telecommunication sector has attracted more than US$12 billion in investment in the past seven years. The sector was liberalized in 2003.
The report said Nigeria has the most competitive information and communication technology (ICT) market in Africa with service providers fighting for share of the growing market. Nigeria has the highest teledensity in Africa of 43.2 percent, according to the report.
However, the report said lack of network capacity and poor infrastructure have prevented operators from broadening their networks fast enough to satisfy the increasing number of subscribers.
George Tapfumanei, communications officer for the African Agency for ICT Development said many African countries are now more committed to developing their ICT sectors in a bid to grow their economies and better people's lives.
Latest Report in the industry shows that NITEL privatization may come on-stream around September 2009 and strong contenders towards its acquisition for now seem to be GLOBALCOM.
Nigerian Telecoms market showed impressive records by the end of 2009 with all operators posting increases in subscriber numbers except of course the moribund NITEL and MTEL.
You can access the data; the latest releases by NCC. http://www.ncc.gov.ng/index5_e.htm
About Industry Statistics
Total active lines as at the end of April 2009 stands at 67M with a Tele-density of about 48%
FUTURE MARKET
However, there is no denying the fact that the industry has reached a saturation point in terms of subscriber growth, giving the fact that the poverty ratio hovers around 70%. Clearly those who can afford to own a line almost already have one.
Therefore any operator who negates or ignores innovation stands to loose. Valued added services will be at the heart of the market for the coming years and will be the engine that drives profitability eventually in the industry. I believe that the stage is set right now for a contest between converged VAS and low cost voice focused operation.
Companies can compete by being innovative in the market, and this innovation can be a radical one or an incremental one by enhancing on existing value addition. At the heart of this value addition for the Nigerian market will be internet services, push email services, e-commerce and file transfer services targeted at small and medium scale enterprises and young professional. At the countryside, I believe operators should begin to focus on innovations that will increase internet penetration and in someway encourage e-commerce services which may also include e-banking for the un-banked.
I personally believe that the blackberry services in Nigeria can become more innovative than the present target of just e-mail services. Operators can begin to look at all the other available services than can be customized and tailored to the local needs for the moment.
The Future of telecommunication lies on this value added services beyond the traditional voice services. For me if you ask, “This is the next gold mine”
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